Let's look on the bright side
We on the left all got sorta freaked out about health care reform this summer, and while we’ve calmed down a bit, we’re still nervous. But let’s look at this from the Republican perspective. They don’t want health care reform, because it would be another giant entitlement program that would be nearly impossible to get rid of once ensconsed, and would provide a big bump to Democrats. But if they just express total opposition to any effort, they get shut out of deliberations. So the trick is to seem open to some sort of reform while working to get various elements included.
They are no longer doing so. They have come out unequivically against the Baucus proposal, probably the most moderate one we’ll see, and they have been all but forced to do so by the same people that got us on the left all freaked out: the town hall protesters.
It is bad for the long-term prospects of the Republican party to totally oppose health care reform, because with the Democrats fully in charge of the government, it will be designed in the most sustainable way that’s politically palatable. But it is very, very good for the short-term prospects of any individual Republican politician to totally oppose reform. This issue is to the 2010 midterms what immigration was to the last midterm elections: such a dealbreaker to the hardcore base that votes in primaries that it will severely constrain the party’s ability to be competitive in moderate districts. And yet it is very unlikely that any Republican representative is going to survive a primary challenge if they support healthcare reform. The base is clearly that worked up about it. But health care reform is going to be very popular among the general population, and so any Republican candidate that gets approval from the base is going to look very bad in the general election. It’s the Democrats’ game to lose at this point, and while that might not give us very much comfort, it’s clear now that the GOP’s hands are tied.
3 months ago
